Slavija 27120101

Macedonia: the path to civil war

For almost a year now, the situation in Macedonia has slowly escalated to the brink of total civil war. It was in February 2001, when the local police cracked down on Albanian narco traffickers near the village of Tanusevci, the ongoing conflict began. Contrary to perceptions given by many major western media outlets, the local law enforcement in Macedonia was and is fighting armed Muslim extremist gangs of heroine traffickers. An undeniable link exists between organizations such as Osama bin Laden's terrorist Al-Qaeda network and the Albanian drug cartels, these links have been well document and even reported in such mainstream western sources as the Guardian (UK), The Times (UK), The Washington Post (US), and Jane's Intelligence Report (UK). Given this information and in light of the recent "war on Islamic terrorists" campaign by the West, the reaction of the world community, NATO, the OSCE and the EU in particular is nothing short of astounding.

Initially NATO pressured the government not to use military force against the terrorists. Clearly using this as an opportunity, the gangs of Albanians began to ethnically cleanse the occupied areas of all non-Albanians. It is worthwhile to note NATO was acting with full knowledge as to the intentions of the Albanian terrorists. NATO had previously worked with many of the same Albanian individuals during the aggressions against Serbia.

Finally after intolerable domestic pressure on the government to flush out the terrorists in March 2001 the OSCE and US approve 'limited' military action against the terrorists. In response, Albanian factions formed illegal paramilitary units and began issuing demands for increased autonomy and rights. According to such credible sources as the U.S. State Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, and the Freedom House, the grounds for such demands by the Albanian factions could not be justified. In spite of this, and with the best intentions to resolve the crisis and promote internal stability, a new coalition government is formed in Skopje to address Albanian grievances. This however was not enough in the eyes of the West. The US formally requested Ukraine, one of the only weapons suppliers to Macedonia, to halt weapons shipments, in order to coerce the government into negotiations.

At the same time NATO, in June of the same year, evacuates the terrorists fighters from Aracinovo village outside of Skopje with out even disarming them. While NATO's actions resulted in vehement outrage among the masses, it proved effective in coercing the government in Skopje to negotiate with the Albanian factions. The subsequent negotiations favored the Albanian terrorists, with the government agreeing to demands and granting amnesty to the Albanians. NATO was given the role of disarming the Albanian terrorists groups. During the month of September, NATO went about "disarming" the Albanian factions by collecting 3,300 damaged, old, and easily replaceable weapons. The operation was little more then a joke, even to the western media. To no surprise these "disarmed" terrorist violated the ceasefire agreement on numerous occasions. In spite of this, the Macedonian parliament ratified the peace agreement.

One of the previsions in the peace agreement addressed the issue of political representation. Since ethnic Albanians comprise roughly 20% of the population in Macedonia, the Albanians argued, they should be represented respectively in various government institutions such as law enforcement, legislative bodies, and so on. If there was previously any doubt regarding the motivations and bias of the OSCE and other western organizations, they were all shattered by the comments made by the Russian president Vladimir Putin in early September of last year. He simply compared the situation in Macedonia to the situation in the Baltic States, where the ethnic Slavic population of Russians, Belorussians, and Ukrainians comes close to 35% in both Latvia and Estonia. If the standards set in Macedonia applied to Slavic people as well as militant Muslim terrorists, then perhaps OSCE should lead a delegation into the Baltics to ensure that the power structures of those states properly reflect their ethnic make up. Of course don't expect NATO to evacuate and save an armed Russian insurgency from Latvian or Estonian militaries anytime soon.

As things stand today, the situation in Macedonia has gone from bad to worse. The clashes with Albanian terrorists continue while confidence of the Macedonians in their government has completely eroded. The economy has been severally devastated, small and large businesses are suffering alike. A partition of the country is now the best that the people hope for. The now shattered and fragmented remains of the government is presently confronted with two options, both bad. 1.) it can attempt to wipe out the separatists which will pose a direct challenge to NATO; OR 2.) it can let the Albanians finish ethnically cleansing what they claim to be their land and formally or informally seceded, an option that is domestically impossible. Most likely, the government will attempt to find a solution incorporating a bit from both possible options as it has done previously. This, unfortunately, will not foster a lasting solution to the problem. As the government continues to aggravate NATO and failing to bring order and security to the country, the most likely outcome is a civil war, which would bring a radical regime to power.

This situation should be a good lesson and eye opener to all Slavic nations and Slavic governments. It is important to note that just a few years earlier the Macedonian government was as 'supportive' of the West as it possibly could be, even if opposed by the general public. During the recent NATO assault on Serbia, the government was jumping for the opportunity to help NATO dismember it's neighbor, giving interviews on the need for more human rights for the poor and persecuted Albanians, taking in refugees, and allowing NATO to use it's territory as a entry point into Kosovo. The Macedonian government was given high marks by West at the time, the only peaceful republic of the Former Yugoslavia and stabilizing influence in the region it was called. However today things have changed, neither the EU nor NATO have any more use for Macedonia, the support became replaced by censures for human rights violations. Perhaps in the future Slavic nations shouldn't be so short sited.